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368 results
Statistical Paradises and Paradoxes in Big Data (I): Law of Large Populations, Big Data Paradox, and the 2016 US Presidential Election.
Journal Article
Statisticians are increasingly posed with thought-provoking and even paradoxical questions, challenging our qualifications for entering the statistical paradises created by Big Data. By developing measures for data quality, this article suggests a...
Are Donation-Based Measures of Ideology Valid Predictors of Individual-Level Policy Preferences?
Journal Article
This article validates donation-based measures of ideology against a rich battery of policy items from the Congressional Campaign Election Study. Donation-based measures are powerful predictors of policy preferences for a wide range of issues and...
Reevaluating Competition and Turnout in U.S. House Elections
Journal Article
Does electoral competitiveness boost turnout in U.S. House elections? Using an individual panel of turnout records compiled from the voter files of all 50 states, we exploit variation in district competitiveness induced by the 2012 redistricting cycle to...
Nationalization in U.S. Senate and Gubernatorial Elections
Journal Article
(How) Can We Estimate the Ideology of Citizens and Political Elites on the Same Scale?
Journal Article
The estimation of the ideology of political elites such as candidates and elected officials on the same scale as that of ordinary citizens has been shown to have great potential to provide new understand- ings of voting behavior, representation and other...
One Vote Out of Step? The Effects of Salient Roll Call Votes in the 2010 Election
Journal Article
We investigate the relationship between controversial roll call votes and support for Democratic incumbents in the 2010 midterm elections. Consistent with previous analyses, we find that supporters of health care reform paid a significant price at the...
Ideological Heterogeneity and Legislative Polarization in the United States
Journal Article
The responsiveness of individual legislators to their constituents creates an indirect electoral connection between the aggregate preferences of citizens and the behavior of legislative parties. In this research, I argue that legislators from moderate...
Partisan Bias in Factual Beliefs about Politics
Journal Article
Partisanship seems to affect factual beliefs about politics. For example, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say that the deficit rose during the Clinton administration; Democrats are more likely to say that inflation rose under Reagan. What...